INTRIGUING - AT 7:18 A.M. ET:  The London Times is reporting a possible deal between Israel and Western countries - approval for an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in exchange for some Israel concessions in the "peace process."

This story cannot be independently verified, and so must be read with caution.  However, there are elements that make sense:

Two Israeli missile class warships have sailed through the Suez Canal ten days after a submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, in preparation for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The deployment into the Red Sea, confirmed by Israeli officials, was a clear signal that Israel was able to put its strike force within range of Iran at short notice. It came before long-range exercises by the Israeli air force in America later this month and the test of a missile defence shield at a US missile range in the Pacific Ocean.

And...

“This is preparation that should be taken seriously. Israel is investing time in preparing itself for the complexity of an attack on Iran. These manoeuvres are a message to Iran that Israel will follow up on its threats,” an Israeli defence official said.

They key claim:

The exercises come at a time when Western diplomats are offering support for an Israeli strike on Iran in return for Israeli concessions on the formation of a Palestinian state.

If agreed it would make an Israeli strike on Iran realistic “within the year” said one British official.

Diplomats said that Israel had offered concessions on settlement policy, Palestinian land claims and issues with neighboring Arab states, to facilitate a possible strike on Iran.

“Israel has chosen to place the Iranian threat over its settlements,” said a senior European diplomat.

COMMENT:  The ultimate issue is the position of Barack Obama.  Israel wouldn't need French or German approval for a strike on Iran.  It would need American approval.  I, for one, am skeptical.  It is hard to believe that Obama would give his okay.  How would he explain it to his rabidly "anti-war" political base?  But Hillary might approve.  Then the issue would revolve around her influence with the president.

July 16, 2009